This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1639600284-34671-5411
Content-Type: text/plain
Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

ACUS11 KWNS 152031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152030=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-152200-

Mesoscale Discussion 2029
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

Areas affected...Portions of eastern NE and northeastern KS

Concerning...Tornado Watch 563...

Valid 152030Z - 152200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 563 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for a few tornadoes and widespread severe winds
of 60-85+ mph will spread east-northeastward across parts of eastern
Nebraska and northeastern KS through 4 PM CST.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms has quickly developed early this
afternoon across portions of north-central KS into south-central NE.
Multiple measured wind gusts of 60-85 mph have been recorded across
this region as the line moved through. 20Z mesoanalysis shows a
narrow corridor of 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE preceding the line across northeastern KS into southeastern NE with minimal convective
inhibition noted due to the pronounced large-scale ascent preceding
a shortwave trough ejecting over the central Plains. A recent VWP
from KUEX shows a rapid increase in southwesterly flow in the 0-2 km
layer, with winds quickly increasing to around 70-80 kt just 1 km
AGL. Potential for these enhanced winds to reach the surface in
convective downdrafts will remain high in the short term across
northeastern KS and eastern NE as the line races east-northeastward
across this area around 50-60 kt. Widespread severe/damaging winds
of 60-85 mph will likely be the primary severe threat, with some
potential for even higher gusts given the strength of the low-level
flow. A few tornadoes with circulations embedded within the line
will also be a continued threat with the enhanced low-level shear
present (effective SRH around 200-300 m2/s2). A couple of these
circulations have already been observed in south-central NE, with at
least one CC minimum (likely TDS).

..Gleason.. 12/15/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vYRgfk54P818kdx4BvU1G-NrvIV3JdjRuZ74UawX5U_rB9YwqaN1rdzV0XnTNQQpaoq_ABpV$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON 39339789 39729792 40479802 41429832 42399761 42439650
41669618 40029570 39609580 39289765 39339789=20



------------=_1639600284-34671-5411
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1639600284-34671-5411--

--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)