• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2030

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Dec 15 21:56:22 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 152156
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152155=20
    IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-152330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2030
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0355 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of far northeastern KS...eastern
    NE...northwestern MO...western/central IA...and far southeastern SD

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 563...

    Valid 152155Z - 152330Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 563 continues.

    SUMMARY...Widespread damaging winds of 60-85+ mph and the potential
    for a few tornadoes will spread quickly eastward into
    western/central Iowa and northwestern Missouri this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Temperatures ahead of a QLCS across eastern NE and
    northeastern KS have recently warmed into the mid 60s to mid 70s,
    with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 50s to low 60s. This
    squall line is expected to remain well organized in the short term
    given 60-70+ kt of effective bulk shear present across the warm
    sector. Strong low/mid-level flow attendant to an ejecting shortwave
    trough will continue to reach the surface through convective
    downdraft accelerations. Numerous severe wind gusts of 60-85 mph
    have been observed at multiple surface sites over the past hour or
    so across northeastern KS and eastern NE. Potential exists for even
    stronger gusts given 60-70 kt of flow present around 850 mb. Indeed,
    a recent wind gust to 93 mph was reported at KLNK (Lincoln, NE) as
    the line moved through. Widespread severe/damaging winds are
    expected to remain prominent as this line of storms races quickly east-northeastward into western/central IA, northwestern MO, and
    vicinity over the next couple of hours. Multiple embedded
    mesovorticies have been noted within the line, as low-level shear
    remains enhanced (effective SRH around 300-400 m2/s2). A few
    tornadoes will also remain a threat, especially with any embedded
    supercell within the line, and a strong tornado cannot be ruled out.

    ..Gleason.. 12/15/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sPZLWGThnZHFOU8PfccG12twwcOwnpyrAFNuhTWCYr09VvVPsJRRjtfx9pJNTnxPZGdgEh6M$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...

    LAT...LON 39139663 40519635 41919673 42449745 43469673 43479419
    42089350 41189352 40649379 40079422 39429559 39139663=20



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