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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2032

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Dec 15 22:51:51 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 152251
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152251=20
    WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-160045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2032
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0451 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

    Areas affected...central Iowa into far southern Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 563...

    Valid 152251Z - 160045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...A line of storms will continue to produce significant wind
    damage, and may also produce several tornadoes as it rapidly moves
    across Iowa, southern Minnesota and into southwest Wisconsin.

    DISCUSSION...A surface low over northwest IA will continue to deepen
    as it moves northeast into MN this evening. An ongoing line of
    storms producing significant wind damage along the trailing cold
    front is expected to remain intact as strong southerly winds warm
    and destabilize the area downstream. While cool conditions currently
    exist farther north into MN and WI, models suggest the warm front
    will mix north, resulting in sufficient SBCAPE to support both wind
    damage and tornadoes. Effective SRH of 500 m2/s2 is expected which
    will support rotation regardless of storm mode.

    ..Jewell/Hart.. 12/15/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!opa2kkqTpKOj_1S2DSmHzDFEEFu39jWEqIfHeiDr5szJTlVrQkFk61gMU9zisEHveMiSS3zf$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...

    LAT...LON 42709245 43339287 43919350 44289348 44639310 44729207
    44689156 44409084 43949029 43428990 42678993 41909007
    41039068 40299138 40229199 40349230 40639241 41309238
    42279228 42709245=20



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