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ACUS11 KWNS 152251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152251=20
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-160045-

Mesoscale Discussion 2032
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0451 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

Areas affected...central Iowa into far southern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 563...

Valid 152251Z - 160045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A line of storms will continue to produce significant wind
damage, and may also produce several tornadoes as it rapidly moves
across Iowa, southern Minnesota and into southwest Wisconsin.

DISCUSSION...A surface low over northwest IA will continue to deepen
as it moves northeast into MN this evening. An ongoing line of
storms producing significant wind damage along the trailing cold
front is expected to remain intact as strong southerly winds warm
and destabilize the area downstream. While cool conditions currently
exist farther north into MN and WI, models suggest the warm front
will mix north, resulting in sufficient SBCAPE to support both wind
damage and tornadoes. Effective SRH of 500 m2/s2 is expected which
will support rotation regardless of storm mode.

..Jewell/Hart.. 12/15/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!opa2kkqTpKOj_1S2DSmHzDFEEFu39jWEqIfHeiDr5szJTlVrQkFk61gMU9zisEHveMiSS3zf$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON 42709245 43339287 43919350 44289348 44639310 44729207
44689156 44409084 43949029 43428990 42678993 41909007
41039068 40299138 40229199 40349230 40639241 41309238
42279228 42709245=20



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