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ACUS11 KWNS 152302
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152301=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-160030-

Mesoscale Discussion 2033
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

Areas affected...portions of far eastern Kansas into western
Missouri and extreme northeast Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 564...

Valid 152301Z - 160030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 564
continues.

SUMMARY...Widespread damaging winds (including 65+ kt gusts) remain
a concern across eastern Kansas into Missouri over the next few
hours. A couple of tornadoes also remain possible.

DISCUSSION...An intense squall line has developed across the
Mid-Mississippi Valley and is approaching the KS/MO border with a 50
kt forward speed. Several severe wind gusts (some around 65 kts)
have been reported over the past hour or so. Given the 60+ kt
synoptic-scale 925 mb flow occurring in proximity to the squall,
downward momentum transport in the stronger storm cores embedded in
the line will continue to support the potential for several
additional severe gusts, with at least a few significant severe (65+
kt) gusts expected over the next few hours. Transient supercell
structures have also developed within the squall, with up to 400
m2/s2 effective SRH residing ahead of the line, suggesting that a
couple of tornadoes could also occur with the more sustained,
dominant supercell structures.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/15/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oV_74ZoNDcbjmP-M7oxBFs2RXY1jIEwyJdG3irVVUKR1o1BF7BbgKzwxhir8WB40UxeuUxjM$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 36759786 39049623 40099569 40419468 40299355 39819288
39039262 38209292 37439353 36869426 36629545 36549635
36759786=20



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