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ACUS11 KWNS 152331
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152330=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-160100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2035
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0530 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

Areas affected...Portions of southwest into northeast Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon=20

Valid 152330Z - 160100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Several severe wind gusts (a few over 65+ kt) are expected
across central Missouri as a mature squall line with a history
significant severe winds approaches from the west. A WW issuance
will be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...A mature squall line with embedded supercells is
rapidly progressing across extreme northwest MO/eastern KS and is
expected to enter central MO over the next couple of hours. The
squall line has a history of several severe gusts, including
measurements over 65 kts. The 986 mb surface low across northeast NE
continues to deepen while tracking towards MN. Current thinking is
that better deep-layer ascent/buoyancy and the corridor of most
significant severe will gradually shift northeast with the low
through the evening. However, the severe wind threat is expected to
persist with the KS/MO segment of the squall for at least a few more
hours, which would include areas east of Severe Thunderstorm Watch
564. As such, a WW issuance will be needed soon.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/15/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qhwnrZUN3TT3GtuldtvvKtA48ERfabpb7DugIZO9mtDmhZOieYTocW-xVNCucqS7cKzOhklW$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...

LAT...LON 36939506 40049363 40509262 40669197 40539163 40009116
39459086 39109082 37569203 37019247 36619310 36419364
36469426 36589497 36939506=20



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