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ACUS11 KWNS 160112
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160111=20
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-160315-

Mesoscale Discussion 2036
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0711 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

Areas affected...eastern Iowa...southeast Minnesota...southwest
Wisconsin

Concerning...Tornado Watch 565...

Valid 160111Z - 160315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 565 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and brief tornadoes
continues from Iowa into Wisconsin.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived line of storms with a history of
significant wind damage continues to rapidly move eastward at over
70 mph along a cold front. Meanwhile, a warm front is gradually
lifting north over far southeast MN and into parts of southwest WI.
Forecast soundings from the warm frontal area indicate that a
near-60 F surface dewpoint yields 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE. This,
combined with effective SRH over 500 m2/s2 suggests that storms will
persist across the MN/WI/IA portion of the MS River Valley. Damaging
wind gusts remain likely given the speed of this system as well as
wind magnitude just off the surface, and low-level shear still
supports a QLCS tornado risk.

Farther south across IL and into MO, instability is weaker with more
CIN noted on objective analysis. However, the existing line of
storms will continue to post a damaging wind risk toward the MS
Valley here as well, although the greatest risk remains farther
north where the line is oriented perpendicular to the deep-layer
shear vector.

..Jewell.. 12/16/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q6kgLj11J27m_jtS11GPzVqr9H_l0upKQ7a68Mz170NdNsFQ4jvAfe2cAd22PFoJ_U5XQIcd$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON 41209311 42139279 42789271 43059281 43559332 44039325
44489282 44619224 44489139 44189097 43339085 42459100
41479176 41309202 41159262 41109308 41209311=20



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