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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2038

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Dec 16 03:03:50 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 160303
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 160303=20
    WIZ000-MIZ000-160500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2038
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0903 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

    Areas affected...north-central Wisconsin

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 565...

    Valid 160303Z - 160500Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 565 continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe wind risk may eventually push into northern
    Wisconsin this evening, and a new watch may need to be considered
    depending on storm trends.

    DISCUSSION...The northern end of a long-lived squall line continues
    to produce severe gusts and damage this evening, moving from
    southeast MN into western WI. Currently, this section of the line is
    oriented favorably (more perpendicular) to the winds aloft, aiding
    storm speed and forward tilt.=20

    Surface analysis shows that the line is near the warm front, with
    temperatures cooling back into the mid 50s F northeast of the
    storms. Very strong southerly winds exist just off the surface, and
    this is likely aiding elevated instability north of the warm front.=20


    Given the organization of the line of storms and continued warm
    advection profiles, some wind threat may persist into north-central
    or even northern WI this evening. Storm trends are currently being
    monitored, and a new watch or extension may be needed.

    ..Jewell.. 12/16/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qc6smLOGZYynau1GWdXH9YZf5Y7eR2HFe7KfkCg86P56BGjOPPaG-GVJ-hbrye9nxBJGr90G$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

    LAT...LON 44539108 45009184 45439204 45829194 46239113 46208943
    46118888 45838846 45458844 44938849 44578864 44328917
    44349054 44539108=20



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