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ACUS11 KWNS 162009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162008=20
TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-162245-

Mesoscale Discussion 2041
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CST Thu Dec 16 2021

Areas affected...Portions of the ArkLaTex to the Mid-South

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 162008Z - 162245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated/marginal severe threat may exist this
afternoon. Watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A cold front is draped southwest to northeast across
the ArkLaTex and Mid-South this afternoon. Modestly enhanced
low/mid-level southwesterly winds are forecast to gradually weaken
though the remainder of the day. Still, enough flow remains to
support around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Even with cloud
cover prevalent across much of the warm sector, filtered diurnal
heating of a moist low-level airmass is supporting MLCAPE generally
ranging from 500-1500 J/kg. The better large-scale ascent aloft will
remain displaced well to the north, with limited low-level
convergence along the cold front owing to a large degree of
front-parallel flow aloft. Still, isolated to scattered storms will
remain possible through the rest of the afternoon. The combination
of sufficient instability and deep-layer shear should be adequate
for some storm organization, with occasional strong/gusty winds
capable of producing mainly tree damage the main threat. An instance
or two of marginally severe hail and perhaps a brief tornado also
appears possible. Given the expectation for the overall severe
threat to remain isolated/marginal, watch issuance is unlikely.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 12/16/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rIGCwHVapu77G2XQGCaiimzFHWNMgV3cAtArF-9bKjanHK-4yLv355MPtIhT8_Vv3rZKxLbw$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 32359540 32809552 32989515 34069405 34299375 34809253
35259170 35639077 35659009 35388983 34988993 33849047
33329129 32739277 32189527 32359540=20



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