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ACUS11 KWNS 180056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180056=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-180300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2043
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 PM CST Fri Dec 17 2021

Areas affected...North-central TX to Eastern OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 180056Z - 180300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated wind/hail may be noted with the strongest
updrafts this evening. Severe thunderstorm watch is not currently
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Weak large-scale height falls are noted across the
southern Plains this evening. Resultant surface pattern reflects
this nebulous forcing with only a minor wave currently noted ahead
of the front over northwest TX. A weak surface low will become more
evident later this evening as it drifts northeast into OK. This
should allow the cold front to surge south deeper into TX where it
will be the focus for additional convection later tonight. Until
then, pre frontal convection has been oriented from south-central OK
into northeast OK for some time, and this corridor may not move
appreciably over the next several hours due to weak low-level
convergence and veered deeper flow. Latest radar data suggests
marginally severe hail/wind continue to be noted with the strongest surface-based updrafts. With time this activity should be shunted
southeast as the cold front begins to surge deeper into the southern
Plains.

..Darrow/Hart.. 12/18/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tfNllmDaxxsLwHWQ8y1O8mko-M6d27S_sa46pGUsHcRKy5Zm_ADGmR9F91HbcwnC2Lf36ItK$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 33979804 35399586 35969493 35059460 33579707 33979804=20



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