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ACUS11 KWNS 180717
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180717=20
TXZ000-180915-

Mesoscale Discussion 2044
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 AM CST Sat Dec 18 2021

Areas affected...Central/East TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 180717Z - 180915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected across
central TX over the next several hours. A few storms may become
strong enough to produce hail and/or damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a cold front from
southeast OK southwestward back through north-central TX and then
more westward across the TX Big Country into the Permian Basin.
Northerly wind gusts behind this front are around 20-30 kt, and the
expectation is that the front will continue surging southeastward
throughout the night. Warm sector ahead of the front from central TX
through the Arklatex is characterized by temperatures in the upper
60s to low 70s and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. These conditions
beneath relatively steep mid-level lapse rates (around 7-7.5 degrees
C per km from 700 to 500 mb) are resulting in a moderately buoyant
airmass with MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg. In addition to this
buoyancy, persistent southwesterly flow aloft (mainly above 700 mb)
stretches across the warm sector and mesoanalysis estimates
effective bulk shear around 40-45 kt.=20

Satellite imagery depicts a shortwave trough embedded within this
southwesterly flow moving through central Mexico, and the lift
associated with shortwave augmented by ascent attendant to the cold
front is forecast to result in increased thunderstorm coverage
across central TX tonight. Given the environmental conditions
described above, a few of these storms may become strong enough to
produce hail and/or damaging wind gusts. Weak low-level flow should
keep the tornado potential low and limited overall severe coverage
will likely preclude the need for a watch.

..Mosier/Grams.. 12/18/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!v8h65v8usJFqeYyUPjP99AjIbkiPSz2OGHcn0WRXMD8Q7folRdnMIkRC7GyAfEOCz9tgcQcL$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 30419925 31499861 32489730 32749669 32709598 32419543
31649516 30989549 29629715 29419746 29189790 29079828
29099877 29279914 30419925=20



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