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ACUS11 KWNS 181954
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181954=20
MAZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-190100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2049
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CST Sat Dec 18 2021

Areas affected...Parts of eastern NY...northern CT...western
MA...southern VT...and southwestern NH

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation=20

Valid 181954Z - 190100Z

SUMMARY...Winter mixed precipitation will continue across parts of
eastern NY, northern CT, and western MA before spreading northward
across southern VT and southern NH later this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar mosaic depicts an increase in
precipitation across the Northeast this afternoon, associated with strengthening DCVA and low/mid-level warm advection preceding an
approaching shortwave trough. The increasing warm advection aloft
continues to support partial to full melting of descending
hydrometers, where surface wet bulb temperatures remain near of just
below freezing. These factors will continue to support a mix of
freezing rain, snow, sleet, and rain through the afternoon. As
forcing for ascent continues to strengthen over the next several
hours, freezing rain rates and sleet accumulations will gradually
increase across parts of eastern NY, northern CT, and west-central
MA before spreading northward into southern VT and southern NH. The
latest high-resolution guidance suggests freezing rain rates could
approach 0.1 in/hour or greater later this afternoon into the
evening, with a focus over eastern NY and western MA. The increasing
warm advection aloft will favor a gradual transition to rain from
south to north by this evening, with moderate to heavy snow
persisting across northeastern NY, VT, NH, and southern ME into the
overnight hours.

..Weinman.. 12/18/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vQC69zQQhPQMlbrgoanqlrVacLhDgAGCf-7PHvNAjvzaHElQE4WS-m5z1mJRAKXOuweSVDU2$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON 42457551 42897554 43447501 43417373 43307265 43007169
42527162 42077177 41897202 41877240 41897274 41927306
41957330 41987347 42097364 42027390 41867422 41737455
41707475 42057521 42457551=20



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