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ACUS11 KWNS 211302
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211301=20
FLZ000-211430-

Mesoscale Discussion 2051
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0701 AM CST Tue Dec 21 2021

Areas affected...South FL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 568...

Valid 211301Z - 211430Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 568 continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts are possible with the stronger storm
moving into the SRQ vicinity.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places the warm front from VNC
eastward across the FL Peninsula to PBI. Am earlier supercell
dissipated at is moved onshore near Fort Myers, with showers now
covering much of the watch area south of the warm front. A stronger thunderstorm is moving eastward towards SRQ, just north of the warm
front. Primary severe threat with this storm is damaging wind gusts.
Position of this storm north of the warm front suggest the tornado
potential is low, although the veering low-level wind profile
(sampled well by the TBW VAD) suggests the threat is non zero.

..Mosier.. 12/21/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!thxpq9JYpL5O8tVktik26-lcgmPwxYYnFSVUaCvkifjR8b4JSixooZoT_Oa7q5DuB58l9x06$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

LAT...LON 27358278 27608259 27578188 27388151 26858120 26178108
25778161 25968202 26918245 27358278=20



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