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ACUS11 KWNS 262245
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262244=20
MNZ000-WIZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-270245-

Mesoscale Discussion 2060
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0444 PM CST Sun Dec 26 2021

Areas affected...Southeast North Dakota into southern Minnesota

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 262244Z - 270245Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall rates up to 1-2 inches per hour are likely
this afternoon and evening as one or more snow bands become
established over eastern North Dakota into southern/central
Minnesota.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar mosaics show a precipitation band
becoming established from west-central MN through southeast ND.
Surface stations and web cams under this band show poor visibility
down to 1/4 mile at times. With temperatures in the teens and
sustained winds in the 10-20 mph range, blowing snow model
probabilities are somewhat low, suggesting that these visibility
reductions can be attributed primarily to heavy snow rates. Broad
scale ascent ahead of an approaching upper-level shortwave is
driving widespread precipitation while strong warm-air advection
across a baroclinic zone at around 700 mb is focusing ascent and
supporting the snow band potential. Per recent RAP soundings, this
zone of ascent is also occurring within the dendritic growth zone,
which will further support heavy snow potential.

As the wave continues to the east/northeast, this zone of stronger
mesoscale ascent should shift into east/northeast ND and northern MN
and may support one or more heavy snowfall bands. Snowfall rates
above 1 inch/hour will be common and may exceed 2 inches/hour -
especially over southern/central MN where weak instability (25-50
J/kg MUCAPE) may locally augment ascent.

..Moore.. 12/26/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sNX6vnV2qAkTdOti-JDY1AuUvKR8V3y4qsrMHk-5lmlGSMuMXoPJAgQ-1XFuvEpG1aGp7Erm$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 43749460 45079599 45979804 46529972 47040089 47990084
48550014 48069746 47239525 46339338 45269272 44469244
43749280 43749460=20



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