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ACUS11 KWNS 270307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270307=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-NDZ000-270700-

Mesoscale Discussion 2062
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0907 PM CST Sun Dec 26 2021

Areas affected...Eastern North Dakota into central Minnesota and
northwest Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 270307Z - 270700Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snowfall rates up to 1-2 in/hr remain
likely heading into the overnight hours as broken snow bands
continue to develop along/north of a mid-level baroclinic zone.
Additionally, increasing winds may result in areas of blowing snow.

DISCUSSION...Broken snow bands continue to develop across eastern ND
into central MN per recent regional radar mosaics. Latest IR imagery
shows cloud top cooling across parts of ND, indicative of
strengthening ascent associated with the approach of the upper wave
from the west/southwest. Additionally, RAP mesoanalysis has shown a constriction of the baroclinic zone at the 700 mb level with
continued 30-50 knot cross-isothermal flow, which suggests mesoscale
forcing for ascent remains strong. At the surface, local forecast
offices have reported heavy snow accumulations, and web cams/surface observations from eastern ND into eastern MN have shown periods of
heavy snow/reduced visibility under the snow bands.=20

These trends suggest that the heavy snow potential will continue for
the next several hours and possibly into the early morning hours
Monday. Snowfall rates between 1-2 inches per hour remain possible
and may be bolstered by pockets of instability on the southern
periphery of the mid-level baroclinic zone. Furthermore, VWP
observations from KMVX show increasing winds within the lowest 1 km
in response to the approaching low. This has manifested at the
surface as wind gusts between 20-30 knots, which may support areas
of blowing snow under the heavier snow bands.

..Moore.. 12/27/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pi5qVUwzqxdsW6F7qe1grvn1-AshHuHgr1lCMexC_-m8oVhUO-BjT2bHxvYycue6sRaGnd4c$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 46179699 46669859 47169963 48059962 48489877 48479682
47799427 47179243 46609143 46129096 45579105 45219129
44919169 44769252 44979403 45639541 46179699=20



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