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ACUS11 KWNS 291824
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291824=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-292000-

Mesoscale Discussion 2072
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CST Wed Dec 29 2021

Areas affected...portions of the western Florida Panhandle into
extreme southeast Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 291824Z - 292000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A damaging gust or perhaps a brief tornado may accompany
the strongest storms that can become organized along the coastline.
A WW issuance is not expected given the isolated, localized nature
of the severe threat.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of relatively robust convective updrafts have
recently become established just off of the FL shoreline along an
850 mb moisture axis, and are moving ashore along western portions
of the Panhandle. Little in the way of lightning has been observed
in the past 1-2 hours with these storms. However, modified 16Z RAP
forecast soundings (valid for 18Z) based on the latest METAR
observations shows up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE resides ahead of these
storms. While deep-layer shear remains weak, the 1801Z EVX VWP shows
modest 0-3 km veering, with up to 150 m2/s2 SRH present in this
layer. As such, it is not completely out of the question for any
sustained storm to produce a damaging gust or a brief tornado to
occur should a storm organize. Nonetheless, the weak deep-layer
shear will likely limit the degree of the severe threat, with the
lack of deep-layer ascent keeping the threat area localized. A WW
issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/29/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!u8EPKFLNeQybTOyTf5boQXY9dgNLfUufhIjiEpX3oFlzt3ji1Seca3VAM9ZgXnUWmhVmBmZO$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON 30208675 30948617 31268565 31348526 31208505 30878485
30518478 30298547 30088600 30208675=20



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