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ACUS11 KWNS 291918
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291918=20
MSZ000-ARZ000-292045-

Mesoscale Discussion 2073
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CST Wed Dec 29 2021

Areas affected...extreme southeast AR into northern MS

Concerning...Tornado Watch 569...

Valid 291918Z - 292045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 569 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe thunderstorms threat is expected to increase
over the next couple of hours across northern MS.

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 1-minute data, specifically the cloud phase
distinction RGB, has shown vertical development in TCU with
beginnings of glaciation from near the Mississippi River in far
northeast LA into north-central MS over the past 30 minutes. Should
this trend continue and semi-discrete cells develop, a corridor of
greater relative severe threat can be expected over the next 2-3
hours across the MCD area.=20

A surface boundary from morning convection extends from near Tunica,
eastward across northern MS. To the south of this boundary,
temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s with dewpoints in the
upper 60s to near 70 F. This has resulted in rather quick
destabilization with MLCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg. Recent VWP
data from KGWX shows a vertically veering wind profile with a
somewhat small, but favorably curved low-level hodograph. Low-level
shear is forecast to improve somewhat with time, resulting in
slightly larger hodographs and a more favorable environment to
support supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes this
afternoon.

..Leitman.. 12/29/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oLs5YIkHXhPALZn-EE6oX3UvOf9MSyBK-wsLovXCkZd2L0B4238LfgJIZaoJvv2bXs8Hrnl-$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON 34479085 34678970 34708901 34618871 34318840 34128844
33798871 33438921 33208968 33198982 33119008 33089093
33199124 33349135 33609139 33799133 34129123 34339103
34479085=20



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