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ACUS11 KWNS 292003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292003=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-292130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2074
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CST Wed Dec 29 2021

Areas affected...portions of central MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 292003Z - 292130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Potential exists for storms to become severe should they
initiate. If storms develop and mature, damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes would be the primary threats. Convective trends will
continue to be monitored for the need of a WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...South of a 1006 mb surface low and within the open warm
sector, attempts at storm initiation and organization have been
noted along a confluence axis roughly coinciding the LA/MS border.
Agitated CU and occasional low-topped storms continue to become more
widespread with time. However, deep-layer ascent remains relatively
weak across central MS, with low-level convergence being negligible
and upper support drifting away in tandem with an embedded 700 mb
impulse over far western TN. As such, storm coverage and subsequent
intensity are in question.=20

Nonetheless, 6+ C/km low and mid-level lapse rates overspreading
upper 60s F surface dewpoints, along with ample surface heating, are contributing to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, where 45-55 kts of effective
bulk shear is present. In addition, 19Z mesoanalysis shows 150-200
m2/s2 effective SRH across central MS, with both deep and low-level
shear increasing with northward extent. Any storm that can develop,
mature, and become sustained would have the potential to produce
damaging gusts, a few tornadoes, or perhaps a couple of severe
hailstones. However, given the conditional nature of the severe
threat, convective trends will continue to be monitored for the need
of a WW issuance over the next few hours.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/29/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ptJhvL7ZudUk1mZfZSDPibH2TLY0kyp24074aItODJrJuUP3dyDr9qWB3VBB6YGM3xA924Tu$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...

LAT...LON 31409151 32199124 32539056 33038926 33328851 33288837
32728838 32328856 32098872 31788934 31478975 31409151=20



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