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ACUS11 KWNS 292049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292049=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-292215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2076
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CST Wed Dec 29 2021

Areas affected...extreme eastern Louisiana into far southern
Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 292049Z - 292215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A damaging gust or brief tornado is possible with one of
the more organized, longer-lasting storms. A WW issuance is not
expected given the brief, localized nature of the severe threat.

DISCUSSION...KLIX radar shows that a couple of storms in
Washington/St. Tammany Parish have exhibited transient supercell
structures and very brief bouts of modest low-level rotation over
the last hour. These storms are supported largely by strong surface
heating, with temperatures and dewpoints around 80/70F,
respectively. MLCAPE has increased to around 2000 J/kg in the
presence of 40+ kt effective bulk shear. Nonetheless, mechanically
driven deep-layer ascent remains negligible across the region, and
the 2028Z KLIX VWP shows only modest veering/curvature in the 0-3 km
layer, with SRH under 200 m2/s2 across the region. The
kinematic/thermodynamic environment does support a very localized
threat for a damaging gust or brief tornado. However, more
widespread and robust storm organization is not expected, and a WW
issuance appears unlikely.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/29/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vnjqH8zNRm_u070pYZ-pfBUNxwKhG4S3mTlMsztW4IiUJQxywZ7N55BcNYVDvohFFw6cmPK3$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 30639020 31189006 31568978 31548892 31218879 30938899
30588965 30639020=20



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