• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2079

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Dec 29 22:45:01 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 292244
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292244=20
    ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-300045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2079
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0444 PM CST Wed Dec 29 2021

    Areas affected...The Texarkana area

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 292244Z - 300045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving into southern AR have shown signs of intensification over the past hour and may pose a severe hail threat
    through the evening hours.

    DISCUSSION...IR imagery and lightning data have shown an
    intensifying trend in convection across the Texarkana area over the
    past 30-60 minutes. This activity is maturing in an environment with
    sufficient MLCAPE (around 500-1000 J/kg) and 50-60 knots of
    effective bulk shear. Given the recent convective trends and
    downstream environment, storms will likely continue to intensify
    over the next 1-2 hours. However, this convection has developed
    along and just ahead of a residual outflow boundary with surface
    temperatures quickly dropping off into the 60s with northern extent.
    This is indicative of a shallow cold layer that will likely favor
    elevated storms. Nonetheless, long, straight hodographs will favor
    the potential for supercellular structures that may pose a severe
    hail threat through the evening hours across the Texarkana region.
    The severe threat may be heightened, including a damaging wind
    potential, for any storms that remain along or south of the outflow
    boundary. Given the elevated and relatively isolated nature of this
    activity, a watch is not expected.

    ..Moore/Bunting.. 12/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qaNZv5cq5Li84RIfpaX-DtcyE2iD8I3Pg5xOiMXIR8eWT6a2pfRbbycHTUoZiPJCEodt5KI6$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...FWD...

    LAT...LON 32419561 33109498 33709404 34069320 33979270 33639256
    33259271 32659306 32399369 32299439 32209495 32189541
    32419561=20



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