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ACUS11 KWNS 292244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292244=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-300045-
Mesoscale Discussion 2079
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0444 PM CST Wed Dec 29 2021
Areas affected...The Texarkana area
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 292244Z - 300045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving into southern AR have shown signs of intensification over the past hour and may pose a severe hail threat
through the evening hours.
DISCUSSION...IR imagery and lightning data have shown an
intensifying trend in convection across the Texarkana area over the
past 30-60 minutes. This activity is maturing in an environment with
sufficient MLCAPE (around 500-1000 J/kg) and 50-60 knots of
effective bulk shear. Given the recent convective trends and
downstream environment, storms will likely continue to intensify
over the next 1-2 hours. However, this convection has developed
along and just ahead of a residual outflow boundary with surface
temperatures quickly dropping off into the 60s with northern extent.
This is indicative of a shallow cold layer that will likely favor
elevated storms. Nonetheless, long, straight hodographs will favor
the potential for supercellular structures that may pose a severe
hail threat through the evening hours across the Texarkana region.
The severe threat may be heightened, including a damaging wind
potential, for any storms that remain along or south of the outflow
boundary. Given the elevated and relatively isolated nature of this
activity, a watch is not expected.
..Moore/Bunting.. 12/29/2021
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qaNZv5cq5Li84RIfpaX-DtcyE2iD8I3Pg5xOiMXIR8eWT6a2pfRbbycHTUoZiPJCEodt5KI6$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...FWD...
LAT...LON 32419561 33109498 33709404 34069320 33979270 33639256
33259271 32659306 32399369 32299439 32209495 32189541
32419561=20
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