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ACUS11 KWNS 300716
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300715=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-300845-

Mesoscale Discussion 2083
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CST Thu Dec 30 2021

Areas affected...Portions of central AL into central/eastern GA and
far west-central SC

Concerning...Tornado Watch 571...

Valid 300715Z - 300845Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 571 continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat continues in/near Tornado Watch
571. Downstream watch issuance into more of eastern Georgia and
central South Carolina appears unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of convection extends from parts of
central AL into GA and upstate SC early this morning. The leading
portion of the line now moving into central SC has shown a general
weakening trend over the past couple of hours. A less unstable
airmass with more convective inhibition noted in latest mesoanalysis
estimates may continue to limit the severe potential in the short
term across SC. Therefore, downstream watch issuance into more of
eastern GA and central SC appears unlikely at this time.

Farther west into central AL/GA, the ongoing broken line is oriented
largely parallel to the deep-layer shear vectors. The low-level flow
has also largely veered to a west-southwesterly component based on
recent VWPs for KBMX/KMXX/KFFC. This is limiting directional shear
and 0-1-km SRH, but effective bulk shear of 45-50 kt is still
present. This shear can still support supercells, although the
current storm mode appears rather messy at the moment. The moist
low-level airmass and related 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE present should
also be sufficient to support surface-based storms along/south of
the ongoing activity. An isolated threat for damaging winds and
perhaps a tornado continues in/near Tornado Watch 571. But, it does
appear that the overall severe threat may be gradually diminishing.

..Gleason.. 12/30/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!o3F13B5WooO6Iux0ORadyZhCGbxEg6lle2nvi_tnYfYFvY7KF9onhVAyZB7_-IahQWmAC6to$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX...

LAT...LON 33248695 33498608 33698387 34048207 34398148 34188124
33058351 32698679 32728722 32948738 33118730 33248695=20



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