• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2085

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Dec 30 16:35:10 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 301635
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301634=20
    GAZ000-ALZ000-301830-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2085
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1034 AM CST Thu Dec 30 2021

    Areas affected...portions of western Alabama into central Georgia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 301634Z - 301830Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A gradual uptick in severe potential is possible into the
    early afternoon hours. Damaging gusts would be the primary severe
    threat, though a tornado or two is also possible. A WW issuance may
    eventually be needed over the next couple of hours.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple discrete/semi-discrete west-east progressing
    storms have been moving roughly parallel to a southward-sagging
    surface cold front over the past couple of hours. In the past hour,
    some of these storms have deviated to the right slightly, with KBMX
    and MRMS mosaic radar showing modest low and mid-level rotation with
    storms in central AL. Surface temperatures ahead of these storms are
    at least in the mid 70s F, with near 70 F dewpoints, contributing to
    1000 J/kg MLCAPE given 6-6.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates (per 16Z
    mesoanalysis). Though parallel to the surface cold front, 50 kts of
    effective bulk shear suggests that potential exists for the more
    intense, sustained updrafts to become or remain organized.=20=20

    While overall deep-layer ascent is weak, ample diurnal heating ahead
    of these storms may foster enough lift and buoyancy to pose a severe
    threat. Given veered low-level wind profiles (evident via recent MXX
    and JGX VWPs), damaging gusts are anticipated to be the primary
    threat, though a tornado also cannot be ruled out given nearly 150
    m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. The main question is when the bulk of the severe
    threat will occur. A sparse severe threat exists at present.
    However, since the uptick in severe may be gradual, a WW may not be
    needed for at least a few more hours. Convective trends will
    continue to be monitored for the need of a WW issuance.

    ..Squitieri/Goss/Hart.. 12/30/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uIxhvr-UjP5hKq6oju0xMmEZFQUbZy_vN4XMSyGXaWSRJObCPROwyRXB0leGlHnglV06t8Qy$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...BMX...MOB...

    LAT...LON 32348836 33118602 33458405 33538258 33468252 33078234
    32768234 32428243 32388258 32188317 32108368 31948609
    32038744 32058816 32348836=20



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