• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2086

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Dec 30 19:01:14 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 301901
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301900=20
    GAZ000-302100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2086
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0100 PM CST Thu Dec 30 2021

    Areas affected...portions of central into southern Georgia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 301900Z - 302100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop and continue for
    at least a few more hours. Damaging gusts are the main threat,
    though a tornado cannot be ruled out. A WW issuance farther south of
    the main thunderstorm band in central Alabama/Georgia is unlikely
    given the sparse nature of the severe threat, though convective
    trends will continue to be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been slowly increasing in number and
    intensity within a modest confluence band across southern into
    central Georgia. KJGX radar shows that some of these storms recently
    acquired supercell structure. These storms are developing in a
    weakly forced environment, and are mainly fueled by deep low-level
    moisture contributing to 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (per 18Z
    mesoanalysis). The presence of 40+ kts effective bulk shear will
    promote continued organization with the more persistent updrafts.
    However, some of the latest JGX VWPs depict short, modestly curved
    hodographs. When taking into account the overall weak deep-layer
    ascent, the weaker and veered low-level flow will limit the severe
    threat to a degree, though damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado
    could still occur. Nonetheless, the isolated nature of the severe
    threat suggests that a WW issuance is unlikely.

    ..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/30/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tkPvFUE4GvTDgJaCMw3l2XzJgHNUpuhoW2GqutPYfwwi5kcBo4n0PWWl32aWnw0sgmCh8xCu$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

    LAT...LON 30948493 31668454 32268340 32308238 32248146 32078118
    31918119 31548181 31188279 30878376 30748470 30948493=20



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