• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2087

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Dec 30 20:55:11 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 302055
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302054=20
    GAZ000-ALZ000-302300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2087
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0254 PM CST Thu Dec 30 2021

    Areas affected...portions of south-central Alabama...and central
    Georgia

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 572...

    Valid 302054Z - 302300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 572
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to intensify across WW 572
    this afternoon. Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a couple of
    tornadoes are possible.

    DISCUSSION...A band of semi-discrete supercell clusters will
    continue spreading generally eastward across parts of east-central
    AL and central GA over the next several hours. Within the
    pre-convective environment, moist south-southwesterly trajectories
    (upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints) off the eastern Gulf of Mexico
    combined with diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates are
    resulting in favorable surface-based inflow. Generally weak forcing
    for ascent across the area combined with deep-layer shear vectors
    oriented obliquely to the low-level axis of forcing should support
    the maintenance of separated updrafts. Ahead of the ongoing
    convection, the latest RAP mesoanalysis and VWPs show effective SRH
    values of 150-180 m2/s2 and 0-6 km bulk shear of 50-60 knots. These
    factors will continue to support the risk of semi-discrete supercell
    structures capable of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts, and
    a couple of tornadoes. The tornado risk may eventually become
    maximized over portions of south-central GA, where surface winds
    should remain slightly more backed beneath a strengthening 850-mb
    low-level jet.

    ..Weinman.. 12/30/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vQy_jJ1qMqTuYDD-nmMXSg9eI4RH__7ofdjRj83EaaRh4nZZ0RAU2N1uUpFcHCnsq7PqPo-V$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

    LAT...LON 31528622 31868678 32358662 32628594 33008461 33168335
    33208245 32868207 32348206 32008225 31818278 31528622=20



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