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ACUS11 KWNS 312340
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312340=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-010115-
Mesoscale Discussion 2090
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0540 PM CST Fri Dec 31 2021
Areas affected...portions of northern Georgia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 312340Z - 010115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A brief tornado cannot be ruled out over the next few
hours as weak supercells approach a stationary boundary and enhanced
low-level shear.
DISCUSSION...As of 2335 UTC, several showers and weak thunderstorms
showing transient low-level mesocyclones were identified across
portions of northern Georgia. Ongoing within a marginally unstable
airmass (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg) ahead of a weak mid-level shortwave
trough, limited forcing for ascent and buoyancy will likely limit
the spatial coverage and longevity of ongoing convection. However,
enhanced low-level shear (0-1km SRH of 150-200 m2/s2) in proximity
to a diffuse quasi-stationary front may continue to support a brief
tornado threat with any marginal supercells structures. Gradual
weakening of the convection should continue through the next several
hours with the loss of daytime heating. Given the uncertainty on the
coverage and longevity of the severe threat a weather watch is
unlikely.
..Lyons/Guyer.. 12/31/2021
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tnBLtBKXbyelajssotKTqoAj1ANNpMreE0htnXKmz1by5E1d9S-SqnxZtMhd1Q8D3a4bSLKV$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...
LAT...LON 33618320 33718428 34008489 34758449 34898390 34798323
34488260 34138227 33818223 33558237 33618320=20
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