• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2090

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Dec 31 23:40:50 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 312340
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 312340=20
    SCZ000-GAZ000-010115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2090
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0540 PM CST Fri Dec 31 2021

    Areas affected...portions of northern Georgia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 312340Z - 010115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A brief tornado cannot be ruled out over the next few
    hours as weak supercells approach a stationary boundary and enhanced
    low-level shear.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2335 UTC, several showers and weak thunderstorms
    showing transient low-level mesocyclones were identified across
    portions of northern Georgia. Ongoing within a marginally unstable
    airmass (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg) ahead of a weak mid-level shortwave
    trough, limited forcing for ascent and buoyancy will likely limit
    the spatial coverage and longevity of ongoing convection. However,
    enhanced low-level shear (0-1km SRH of 150-200 m2/s2) in proximity
    to a diffuse quasi-stationary front may continue to support a brief
    tornado threat with any marginal supercells structures. Gradual
    weakening of the convection should continue through the next several
    hours with the loss of daytime heating. Given the uncertainty on the
    coverage and longevity of the severe threat a weather watch is
    unlikely.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 12/31/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tnBLtBKXbyelajssotKTqoAj1ANNpMreE0htnXKmz1by5E1d9S-SqnxZtMhd1Q8D3a4bSLKV$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...

    LAT...LON 33618320 33718428 34008489 34758449 34898390 34798323
    34488260 34138227 33818223 33558237 33618320=20



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