This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1641058109-74861-1674
Content-Type: text/plain
Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

ACUS11 KWNS 010309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010308=20
TNZ000-ARZ000-MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-010545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0001
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0908 PM CST Fri Dec 31 2021

Areas affected...northeast Texas into Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 010308Z - 010545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are forecast to increase in coverage after 03-04Z
from northeast Texas into western and northern Arkansas. Initially,
a few damaging gusts or marginal hail may occur.

DISCUSSION...A diffuse zone of warm/moist advection near 850 mb
current stretches from northern TX across AR and into TN, with a
weak surface wind shift coming into north TX. Surface winds are
currently calm to weak from Dallas northeastward into AR, south of a
broader area of showers in the cooler air. To the south, surface
winds were gusting to around 20 kt from eastern TX into LA where
dewpoints are into the mid to upper 60s F.

Radar shows convection is increasing near the Red River and into
west-central AR, where lift warm advection just off the surface
exists. Cooler 700 mb temperatures exist across eastern OK into
western and northern AR, which is reducing inhibition for elevated
parcels. Deep-layer shear is strong at 60-70 kt, and also oriented
mostly parallel to the 850/700 mb isotherms.

Storms will continue to increase in coverage throughout this zone,
especially after about 04Z. Convective inhibition for mixed-layer
parcels may hamper storm severity initially. However, as convection
evolves tonight in the highly sheared environment, some organization
is possible. Storms are expected to rapidly increase in coverage,
and this interaction may minimize supercell potential. However,
severe wind will be possible with any bows that can form within the
corridor. Tornado threat will depend on storm mode/interactions, and
proximity of the storms to the more unstable/warmer boundary layer
air. Convective and mesoscale trends will continue to be monitored
tonight for potential tornado threat.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 01/01/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qGrr_L75Ye5ELJIZ3GEUsAb2b2dWsDffb6Doa9dl0ZV-YHJ0sYzEhRpIuPGIT7WdF-_uPQHP$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 36029240 36199100 36179021 35998997 35698977 35388994
35159042 34859177 34509311 33509477 33199574 33289619
33809627 34349560 35079475 35709345 36029240=20



------------=_1641058109-74861-1674
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1641058109-74861-1674--

--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)