• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0003

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jan 1 08:07:52 2022
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    ACUS11 KWNS 010807
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 010807=20
    KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-011000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0003
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0207 AM CST Sat Jan 01 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Arkansas...the Missouri
    Bootheel...and northwestern Tennessee into southern Kentucky

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 2...

    Valid 010807Z - 011000Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 2 continues.

    SUMMARY...A corridor of strong to occasionally severe thunderstorm
    development may persist through the 4-6 AM CST time frame, posing a
    risk for occasional strong to severe surface gusts, and perhaps some
    lingering risk for a tornado.

    DISCUSSION...Downstream of large-scale mid-level troughing (with a
    couple of significant embedded perturbations--including one
    progressing east of the southern Rockies through daybreak), a narrow
    corridor of vigorous thunderstorm development appears likely to
    persist through the 10-12Z time frame, along an axis north of Little
    Rock AR through the Missouri Bootheel and Bowling Green KY
    vicinities. This is focused along the edge of stronger mid-level
    capping on the northwestern periphery of subtropical ridging (and
    associated warm layers aloft), and appears generally rooted within
    warm advection above at least a shallow neutral to stable
    surface-based layer. However, an influx of seasonably high moisture
    content appears to be contributing to moderately large most-unstable
    CAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg, in the presence of strong
    cloud-bearing layer shear.

    Models do suggest that southwesterly flow around 850 mb probably
    will continue to strengthen through this morning along this
    corridor, from 40 to 50+ kt, in association with a weak/low
    amplitude frontal wave. However, it remains unclear the extent to
    which this may contribute to a substantive further increase in
    discrete supercell storms, as stronger convection continues to grow
    upscale and tends to remain at least slightly elevated above the
    stable surface-based layer reinforced by training convection. The
    evolution of bowing segments appears more probable, with some
    potential for heavy precipitation loading in stronger storms to aid
    the downward mixing of higher momentum through the near surface
    stable layer, and occasionally contribute to potentially damaging
    surface gusts.

    ..Kerr.. 01/01/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!r4WhYQUCYZSBFFXIi3r2b3o26Tmx4m4tK-tZgeeFnFlP_WjCJs4FUdtEi3XlL7oNS_R-8qT7$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

    LAT...LON 35859153 36678924 37268669 36838508 36118827 35648993
    35049131 34889227 35409240 35859153=20



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