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ACUS11 KWNS 010951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010951=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-011345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0004
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CST Sat Jan 01 2022

Areas affected...Parts of northwestern/north central Kansas and
south central Nebraska

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 010951Z - 011345Z

SUMMARY...A period of heavy snow rates in excess of 1 inch per hour
is possible this morning, mainly in the 6-10 AM CST time frame.

DISCUSSION...As a mid/upper short wave impulse accelerates
east-northeast of the southern Rockies, an increasingly divergent
upper flow field, coupled with mid-level frontogenetic forcing,
appears to be contributing to increasing forcing for ascent and
associated precipitation across the high plains of eastern Colorado
into northwestern Kansas. Within thermodynamic profiles entirely
below freezing, including a low-level intrusion of Arctic air to the
lee of the Rockies, this is in the form of snow, and is expected to
continue to develop east-northeastward across western/northern
Kansas and southern Nebraska this morning.

Moisture (including precipitable water on the order of .3-.5 inches)
may be somewhat marginal for heavy snow, but cold low-level
temperatures may compensate and contribute to higher snow-to-liquid
water equivalent precipitation. Near the eastern periphery of the
core of coldest low-level air, various model output has suggest that
a corridor of enhanced warm advection, aided by a 30 kt
northeasterly jet around 850 mb, may augment large-scale ascent and
enhance precipitation rates around the 12-15Z time frame, roughly
from near Hill City KS into the Hastings NE vicinity. It appears
that this may include a period of lift maximizing in the dendritic
growth layer, possibly contributing to heavy snow rates of 1-2
inches per hour.

..Kerr.. 01/01/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pf4X82Is4-W4GFrswrZIG_KO8MGZAXcP3flhg2oDe1OCApbu2DiSIQuEd4ikzJThVbH1DNgl$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 39580030 40599860 40229767 39179870 38849985 39580030=20



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