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ACUS11 KWNS 011632
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011631=20
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-012100-
Mesoscale Discussion 0006
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CST Sat Jan 01 2022
Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...Southeast Nebraska...Southwest
Iowa...and Northwest Missouri
Concerning...Heavy snow=20
Valid 011631Z - 012100Z
SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow expected into the early afternoon,
with 1+ inch per hour rates possible.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar depicts a broad area of precipitation
extending from south-central Nebraska/north-central Kansas into
northern Missouri and southern Iowa, with moderate to occasional
heavy snow being reported. Despite the post-frontal regime at the
surface, this region is under the influence of mid-level ascent
associated with 700 mb frontogenesis and an approaching short-wave
trough. Regional forecast soundings depict saturated conditions
through a deep sub-freezing warm layer aloft, including saturation
and lift through the dendritic growth zone, for a few hours late
this morning into the early afternoon. Strong low-level cold/dry air
advection may limit snowfall rates with northern extent while
simultaneously promoting higher snow-to-liquid ratios, perhaps
promoting a sharp north-south gradient in snowfall rates. As such,
the most likely region for sustained 1+ inch snowfall rates should
occur along the southeastern periphery of mid-level frontogenetical
forcing into the early afternoon.
..Karstens.. 01/01/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vn5BMZ1s2LWTjrIbAIJCyHRylkMMYYc_IoPLaMs6tIkOdBXil0julxP6TpCwKSniuGzSCBLq$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...
LAT...LON 39189673 39459774 40089754 40809622 41099425 41019325
40269282 39779332 39679450 39189673=20
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