• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0006

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jan 1 16:32:25 2022
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    ACUS11 KWNS 011632
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 011631=20
    MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-012100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0006
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1031 AM CST Sat Jan 01 2022

    Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...Southeast Nebraska...Southwest
    Iowa...and Northwest Missouri

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 011631Z - 012100Z

    SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow expected into the early afternoon,
    with 1+ inch per hour rates possible.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar depicts a broad area of precipitation
    extending from south-central Nebraska/north-central Kansas into
    northern Missouri and southern Iowa, with moderate to occasional
    heavy snow being reported. Despite the post-frontal regime at the
    surface, this region is under the influence of mid-level ascent
    associated with 700 mb frontogenesis and an approaching short-wave
    trough. Regional forecast soundings depict saturated conditions
    through a deep sub-freezing warm layer aloft, including saturation
    and lift through the dendritic growth zone, for a few hours late
    this morning into the early afternoon. Strong low-level cold/dry air
    advection may limit snowfall rates with northern extent while
    simultaneously promoting higher snow-to-liquid ratios, perhaps
    promoting a sharp north-south gradient in snowfall rates. As such,
    the most likely region for sustained 1+ inch snowfall rates should
    occur along the southeastern periphery of mid-level frontogenetical
    forcing into the early afternoon.

    ..Karstens.. 01/01/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vn5BMZ1s2LWTjrIbAIJCyHRylkMMYYc_IoPLaMs6tIkOdBXil0julxP6TpCwKSniuGzSCBLq$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

    LAT...LON 39189673 39459774 40089754 40809622 41099425 41019325
    40269282 39779332 39679450 39189673=20



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