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ACUS11 KWNS 011737
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011737=20
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-011930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0007
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 AM CST Sat Jan 01 2022

Areas affected...Northern LA...Southeast AR...Central/Northern MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 011737Z - 011930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in thunderstorm coverage is anticipated
from northern LA, southeast AR, and central/northern MS this
afternoon. Tornadoes are possible and a Tornado Watch will likely be
issued to cover this threat.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis reveals a broad warm sector in
place from south-central AR/northern LA eastward into MS.
Temperatures within this region are generally in the mid 70s with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Objective analysis and modified
RAP soundings show generally 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, with the
overall buoyancy currently limited by relatively warm mid-level
temperatures. Visible satellite imagery shows numerous
south-southwest to north-northeast oriented cloud bands, evidence of
the increasing large scale forcing for ascent as well as persistent
northward moisture return. Numerous showers have developed within
these bands, and a few embedded updrafts have become strong enough
to 35+ dBZ. Lightning has not been observed thus far, but the
persistent moisture advection coupled with increasing large-scale
forcing for ascent will likely result in at least a few more
robust/organized updrafts.=20

Kinematic fields throughout this warm sector are quite strong, with
regional VAD profiles at SHV and DGX sampling 40 to 50 kt winds in
the 1 to 2 km layer. Mesoanalysis estimates effective bulk shear is
over 60 kt for most of the region. Surface winds are modestly veered
but the strong low to mid-level flow still results in enough
low-level curvature for tornadogenesis. Expectation is for a gradual
increase in updraft depth/lightning activity over the next few
hours. As these storms organize, a few discrete supercells are
possible, with an attendant risk for tornadoes and damaging wind
gusts. A Tornado Watch will eventually be needed to cover this
potential threat.

..Mosier/Grams.. 01/01/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q3sraNfrupspsWzLlIUCDL9ofL1uPVZGQf59_q_UOm-f9TDJzcHDLwfhpF0x1-LcQMZHfVHa$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 32789370 34289192 34988991 34468845 32698948 31679213
32789370=20



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