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ACUS11 KWNS 020002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020002=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-020200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0013
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0602 PM CST Sat Jan 01 2022

Areas affected...parts of eastern MS and northern to west-central AL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 4...5...6...

Valid 020002Z - 020200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 4, 5, 6 continues.

SUMMARY...The Risk of a few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and
isolated large hail may increase during the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...A mix of multicell clusters and transient supercell
structures should continue tracking east-northeastward from eastern
MS across parts of northern to west-central AL during the next few
hours. Here, a moist airmass (middle/upper 60s dewpoints) is
contributing to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE where the latest VWPs show
0-6 km bulk shear of 60-70 knots. While storms have struggled across
the warm sector thus far owing to limited large-scale forcing for
ascent and weak low-level convergence, a low-level jet is expected
to overspread the area which may support a few longer-lived
multicell clusters and supercells over the next few hours. The
latest VWPs from GWX and HTX show 0-1 km SRH values of 250-300 m2/s2
ahead of the ongoing convection, which will support a risk of a few
tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and isolated large hail with any
sustained supercells or intense multicells across the area.

..Weinman.. 01/02/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rgneWZOh7ccHJk1QQR3konLVra0Z5c-KBX1Nn_WHBns_cLYEx_-ixgd_ZxlxTQVvHk_hIwRx$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 34678721 34658632 34558567 34368548 34008557 33458602
32808714 32378807 32538918 33098949 33618944 34188906
34578833 34678721=20



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