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ACUS11 KWNS 020230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020230=20
TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-020330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0014
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0830 PM CST Sat Jan 01 2022

Areas affected...eastern Tennessee/northern Alabama/northwestern
Georgia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 7...

Valid 020230Z - 020330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 7 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe risk continues locally across valid portions of WW
007.

DISCUSSION...Latest objective analyses indicate a continued/gradual
decrease in mixed-layer CAPE across the region, ongoing in
conjunction with diurnal boundary-layer cooling. This corresponds
with an overall decrease in convective intensity/organization within
the main/frontal band of storms moving across eastern Tennessee and
northern Alabama. At this time, the strongest storms are shifting
into far northeastern Alabama.

With that said, weak height falls will spread eastward across the
central Gulf Coast region/Tennessee Valley area tonight, ahead of
the advancing upper system. As such, weak ascent aloft may steepen
lapse rates a bit with time, possibly/partially offsetting the
ongoing/diurnal airmass stabilization. As such, given the very
favorable kinematic environment, at least some severe risk will
likely continue overnight near and ahead of the advancing cold
front.

..Goss.. 01/02/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!p6rFiYQNf0P64N16dgAZctbX2uL5IAeeRyo7koBOflLWNqXXcDbv7x6maHh7t8MKPF9O3Hkn$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...HUN...

LAT...LON 34478645 34598645 35158553 35788451 36358381 36358352
35758331 34918455 34488566 34478645=20



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