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ACUS11 KWNS 020312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020311=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-020415-
Mesoscale Discussion 0015
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0911 PM CST Sat Jan 01 2022
Areas affected...Portions of eastern Mississippi and north-central
Alabama into northwestern Georgia
Concerning...Tornado Watch 6...
Valid 020311Z - 020415Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 6 continues.
SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to continue late this
evening past the 4z expiration of Tornado Watch 6. A new watch will
likely be coordinated to replace it as the risk for a few tornadoes
and severe wind gusts will remain possible with convection
developing after 4z.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar and satellite imagery show weak convection
becoming better established across portions of eastern Mississippi
ahead of the effective cold front and mid-level trough moving across
the Mississippi River. Subtle height falls have been noted over the
last few hours working to remove a stubborn elevated warm layer as
observed by regional soundings. The slight increase in forcing for
ascent coupled with continued low-level warm advection beneath a
45-60 kt low-level jet will offset nocturnal stabilization across
the large warm sector. Hi-res guidance has hinted at a potential
increase in thunderstorm coverage after 4z mainly across eastern MS
and west-central AL. Environmental conditions remain favorable for
severe storms including supercells as sampled by 00z RAOBS with
sufficient buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) and relatively large
hodographs (0-1km SRH 200-300 m2/s2). Current thinking is that WW6
will be replaced with a new watch across portions of MS, AL, and
possible western GA to cover the threat for a few tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts through the overnight period.
..Lyons/Guyer.. 01/02/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rxNuwU6kRTjGR7-b27FEY-zb1u4LGqQ0pi1hbI3R11TJIJhXZu19kNwyjpA70rdjzHp69CQr$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 34588640 34538548 34408528 34068529 33638555 33138633
32498777 32248941 32438977 32948958 33428922 33578901
33788872 34248798 34438724 34588640=20
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