• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0015

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jan 2 03:12:28 2022
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    ACUS11 KWNS 020312
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 020311=20
    GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-020415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0015
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0911 PM CST Sat Jan 01 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern Mississippi and north-central
    Alabama into northwestern Georgia

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 6...

    Valid 020311Z - 020415Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 6 continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to continue late this
    evening past the 4z expiration of Tornado Watch 6. A new watch will
    likely be coordinated to replace it as the risk for a few tornadoes
    and severe wind gusts will remain possible with convection
    developing after 4z.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar and satellite imagery show weak convection
    becoming better established across portions of eastern Mississippi
    ahead of the effective cold front and mid-level trough moving across
    the Mississippi River. Subtle height falls have been noted over the
    last few hours working to remove a stubborn elevated warm layer as
    observed by regional soundings. The slight increase in forcing for
    ascent coupled with continued low-level warm advection beneath a
    45-60 kt low-level jet will offset nocturnal stabilization across
    the large warm sector. Hi-res guidance has hinted at a potential
    increase in thunderstorm coverage after 4z mainly across eastern MS
    and west-central AL. Environmental conditions remain favorable for
    severe storms including supercells as sampled by 00z RAOBS with
    sufficient buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) and relatively large
    hodographs (0-1km SRH 200-300 m2/s2). Current thinking is that WW6
    will be replaced with a new watch across portions of MS, AL, and
    possible western GA to cover the threat for a few tornadoes and
    damaging wind gusts through the overnight period.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 01/02/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rxNuwU6kRTjGR7-b27FEY-zb1u4LGqQ0pi1hbI3R11TJIJhXZu19kNwyjpA70rdjzHp69CQr$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

    LAT...LON 34588640 34538548 34408528 34068529 33638555 33138633
    32498777 32248941 32438977 32948958 33428922 33578901
    33788872 34248798 34438724 34588640=20



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