• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0016

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jan 2 05:19:57 2022
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    ACUS11 KWNS 020519
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 020519=20
    GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-020715-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0016
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1119 PM CST Sat Jan 01 2022

    Areas affected...portions of central and northern Alabama into the
    northwestern Georgia vicinity

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 7...8...

    Valid 020519Z - 020715Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 7, 8 continues.

    SUMMARY...Risk for severe weather -- including potential for a
    couple of tornadoes -- continues across the WW areas, with some
    increase in potential expected over the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor loop suggests that mid- and
    upper-level heights are gradually falling across the central Gulf
    Coast region at this time, as the upper trough crossing the central
    and southern Plains advances.=20=20

    South of the southward-moving surface cold front -- now bisecting
    Mississippi from southwest to northeast and extending across
    northern Alabama and eastern Tennessee, the boundary layer remains
    quite moist. This -- combined with the mid-level ascent aiding in
    some steepening of lapse rates, is helping to maintain 500 to 1000
    J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across this area per RUC-based objective
    analyses. In tandem with the subtly increasing ascent, an uptick in
    convective coverage/intensity is noted over the past hour across the
    region, and expect this trend to continue over the next few hours
    (in line with HRRR and other recent CAM runs).

    Given the very favorable background kinematic environment, risk that
    a few severe/rotating storms re-emerge remains apparent. Along with
    potential for locally damaging winds, a couple of tornadoes remain a possibility overnight.

    ..Goss.. 01/02/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sEkN64TD63z51qIeAL8kQJCZMMkiZByWfLRFNOIQLyDn82Cdm3DHPwwb_9I5wrSZjW93fSDf$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...

    LAT...LON 33298830 34308694 35178510 34618497 33948514 32148756
    31918841 32558837 33298830=20



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