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ACUS11 KWNS 020519
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020519=20
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-020715-
Mesoscale Discussion 0016
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 PM CST Sat Jan 01 2022
Areas affected...portions of central and northern Alabama into the
northwestern Georgia vicinity
Concerning...Tornado Watch 7...8...
Valid 020519Z - 020715Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 7, 8 continues.
SUMMARY...Risk for severe weather -- including potential for a
couple of tornadoes -- continues across the WW areas, with some
increase in potential expected over the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor loop suggests that mid- and
upper-level heights are gradually falling across the central Gulf
Coast region at this time, as the upper trough crossing the central
and southern Plains advances.=20=20
South of the southward-moving surface cold front -- now bisecting
Mississippi from southwest to northeast and extending across
northern Alabama and eastern Tennessee, the boundary layer remains
quite moist. This -- combined with the mid-level ascent aiding in
some steepening of lapse rates, is helping to maintain 500 to 1000
J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across this area per RUC-based objective
analyses. In tandem with the subtly increasing ascent, an uptick in
convective coverage/intensity is noted over the past hour across the
region, and expect this trend to continue over the next few hours
(in line with HRRR and other recent CAM runs).
Given the very favorable background kinematic environment, risk that
a few severe/rotating storms re-emerge remains apparent. Along with
potential for locally damaging winds, a couple of tornadoes remain a possibility overnight.
..Goss.. 01/02/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sEkN64TD63z51qIeAL8kQJCZMMkiZByWfLRFNOIQLyDn82Cdm3DHPwwb_9I5wrSZjW93fSDf$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...
LAT...LON 33298830 34308694 35178510 34618497 33948514 32148756
31918841 32558837 33298830=20
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