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ACUS11 KWNS 020819
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020819=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-021015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0017
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 AM CST Sun Jan 02 2022

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Mississippi through central
Alabama and northwest Georgia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 8...

Valid 020819Z - 021015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 8 continues.

SUMMARY...A substantive further increase in severe weather potential
appears unlikely, but isolated, occasional thunderstorm
intensification, which could pose potential to produce a tornado or
locally damaging wind gusts, remains possible through 3-5 AM CST.

DISCUSSION...Much of the Southeast remains under the influence of
larger-scale mid/upper subtropical ridging, and recent warm sector
thunderstorm development is struggling to maintain substantive
intensity while remaining confined to a narrow corridor immediately
ahead of an initial weak cold frontal zone. With the primary
surface frontal wave development currently ongoing near/east of the
northern Mid Atlantic coast region, the tail end of the core of
stronger (50+ kt around 850 mb) southwesterly low-level wind fields
are in the process of shifting northeastward to the lee of the
southern Appalachians. As this continues, a gradual weakening of
low-level flow across the eastern Gulf Coast states appears likely
through daybreak.

However, in the presence of seasonably high moisture content
(including surface dew points near 70F), low-level hodographs
immediately ahead of the front may remain sizable with at least some
clockwise curvature through the 09-11Z time frame. This may
continue to support a conditional risk for the evolution of
supercell structures with the potential to produce tornadoes, as the
front gradually advances southeastward across northwestern Georgia,
central Alabama and southeastern Mississippi, in tandem with perhaps
some suppression of the ridging at mid-levels.

..Kerr.. 01/02/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!phyiT5ZIKi_idAc31Ag_b3NiazVfx2k92pPVpXo37pzLxBjUyk0sFWiGZjn3MV6JUiOafeBa$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON 32588795 33148703 33868595 34008543 33898480 32978496
32278589 31698722 31398789 31268905 32588795=20



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