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ACUS11 KWNS 021637
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021637=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-021800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0018
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1037 AM CST Sun Jan 02 2022

Areas affected...portions of the western Florida Panhandle into
extreme southern Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 021637Z - 021800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple damaging gusts or a brief tornado may accompany
one of the stronger, sustained storms approaching the Florida
Panhandle shoreline from the Gulf of Mexico. Given the limited area
impacted and isolated extent of the severe threat, a WW issuance is
not expected in the near term.

DISCUSSION...A warm, moist low-level airmass (characterized by near
80 F/70 F surface temperatures/dewpoints) continues to advect inland
from the Gulf of Mexico and is overspreading portions of the Deep
South late this morning. Diurnal heating is also fostering 6.5 C/km
low-level lapse rates per latest mesoanalysis, contributing to 1500
J/kg MLCAPE. While overall deep-layer ascent is weak, a 70+ kt
mid-level speed maximum overlaying a 30+ kt LLJ supports 50-65 kts
of effective bulk shear. As such, thunderstorms approaching the
western FL Panhandle from the Gulf of Mexico may continue to
organize. While some low-level rotation and a brief tornado/damaging
gusts are possible this morning, mainly unidrectional low-level
shear (evident via straight-line hodographs recently exhibited by
the EVX VWP) suggest that the severe threat should be brief. When
also considering the small spatial extent of the severe threat, a WW
issuance appears unlikely at this time.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 01/02/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oTcx0g0x3YTsWxcUL-NHU54XjLonplIIQ1awgqKRm15Myb_2sMYO0iqygqYxwoKMkRA6cjM3$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 30198784 31128674 31548607 31638535 31548518 31398506
31088506 30698543 30428597 30208674 30198784=20



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