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ACUS11 KWNS 021853
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021853=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-022100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0019
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 PM CST Sun Jan 02 2022

Areas affected...Far Southeast AL...Central/Eastern FL
Panhandle...Southwest GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 021853Z - 022100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The overall environment is gradually becoming more
favorable for thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and brief
tornadoes. A watch will likely be needed to address this threat.

DISCUSSION...Evolving convective cluster moving across far southeast
AL and the central FL Panhandle has shown some trend towards a bit
more forward propagation, particularly with the southern end over
FL. Downstream air mass continues to destabilize amid filtered
daytime heating and persistent moisture advection. Current
mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE across the FL Panhandle decreasing to
around 1000 J/kg across southeast GA. This is a bit higher than what
was recently sampled by the 18Z TLH sounding, which has notable
warming above 650 mb. Surface winds have also strengthened across
this region, with the area VAD profiles and the 18Z TLH sounding
showing over 100 m2/s2 of 0-1 km storm-relative helicity.=20

These conditions are expected to support a gradually increasing
threat for damaging wind gusts within the developing line as well as
shallow supercells capable of tornadoes ahead of the line. Some
embedded tornadoes are also possible within the developing line.
Given these potential threats, a watch will likely be needed.

..Mosier/Grams.. 01/02/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rX4n4iKjV7t_bgUhQOgiPDSZNmzhLDqod5GQe-QqS6ytbit-2IgZK7gZxXkv2M9YSE8LEnMJ$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 31488608 32198473 32378325 31418317 30708354 30148559
30538632 31488608=20



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