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ACUS11 KWNS 022048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022048=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-022245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0020
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CST Sun Jan 02 2022

Areas affected...far southeast Alabama...southwestern into central Georgia...and the Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 9...

Valid 022048Z - 022245Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 9 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 9.
Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes remain the primary threats,
especially with any storms that can coincide an outflow boundary
draped across southern Georgia.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been gradually increasing in both
coverage and intensity over the past couple of hours. So far, storms
have obtained primarily linear structure, though a few occasional
transient supercells/QLCS circulations have been noted with storms
that have traversed an outflow boundary (located along a line
roughly from Early County GA to Jasper County SC). Ahead of these
storms and south of the boundary, surface temperatures have warmed
into the lower 80s F, and with upper 60s F dewpoints present, MLCAPE
has climbed into the 1000-1500 J/kg range on a widespread basis. At
the moment, low-level shear continues to increase based on some of
the recent TLH/VAX VWPs. Locally higher streamwise vorticity may
also exist along the nearly stalled outflow boundary. Any storms
that can become organized and traverse the boundary for an
appreciable amount of time will have the highest severe/tornado
threat.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 01/02/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uO9Szt6fAJFWVPFlzUAUCGTP_lHtzTUaKPOVKRpV8KGXLpkCBw_cEO2nmvOyApaHnx34sql_$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 30338624 31268505 32378401 32658287 32638209 32508186
32048211 31458273 30918328 30438379 30118418 29878459
29748500 29828556 30338624=20



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