• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0020

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jan 2 20:49:03 2022
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    ACUS11 KWNS 022048
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022048=20
    GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-022245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0020
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0248 PM CST Sun Jan 02 2022

    Areas affected...far southeast Alabama...southwestern into central Georgia...and the Florida Panhandle

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 9...

    Valid 022048Z - 022245Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 9 continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 9.
    Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes remain the primary threats,
    especially with any storms that can coincide an outflow boundary
    draped across southern Georgia.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been gradually increasing in both
    coverage and intensity over the past couple of hours. So far, storms
    have obtained primarily linear structure, though a few occasional
    transient supercells/QLCS circulations have been noted with storms
    that have traversed an outflow boundary (located along a line
    roughly from Early County GA to Jasper County SC). Ahead of these
    storms and south of the boundary, surface temperatures have warmed
    into the lower 80s F, and with upper 60s F dewpoints present, MLCAPE
    has climbed into the 1000-1500 J/kg range on a widespread basis. At
    the moment, low-level shear continues to increase based on some of
    the recent TLH/VAX VWPs. Locally higher streamwise vorticity may
    also exist along the nearly stalled outflow boundary. Any storms
    that can become organized and traverse the boundary for an
    appreciable amount of time will have the highest severe/tornado
    threat.

    ..Squitieri/Grams.. 01/02/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uO9Szt6fAJFWVPFlzUAUCGTP_lHtzTUaKPOVKRpV8KGXLpkCBw_cEO2nmvOyApaHnx34sql_$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

    LAT...LON 30338624 31268505 32378401 32658287 32638209 32508186
    32048211 31458273 30918328 30438379 30118418 29878459
    29748500 29828556 30338624=20



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