• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0021

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jan 2 21:51:35 2022
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    ACUS11 KWNS 022151
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022150=20
    SCZ000-GAZ000-022315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0021
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0350 PM CST Sun Jan 02 2022

    Areas affected...South-Central/Southeast GA....Far Southwest SC

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 9...

    Valid 022150Z - 022315Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 9 continues.

    SUMMARY...Ongoing storm cluster as well as the cells ahead of it
    will continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts and/or brief
    tornadoes. This risk may extent past the edge of Tornado Watch 9 and
    trends will be monitored for potential downstream watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Ongoing thunderstorm cluster in southwest GA continue
    to move northeastward at 35-40 kt, with the cells out ahead of the
    cluster exhibiting similar motion. Damaging wind gusts are the
    primary risk, but a brief tornado is also possible. This storm
    motion will likely bring the cells ahead of the cluster in Dodge and
    Wilcox counties to the northeast edge of Tornado Watch 9 near 23Z.
    The main cluster may move a bit slower, but could still reach the
    east-central edge of Tornado Watch 9 in the 2300Z to 0000Z time
    frame.=20

    The downstream air mass across southeast GA and adjacent far
    southwest SC is split by an outflow boundary stretching from near
    CHS southwestward to about 25 miles north of ABY. Mid 60s dewpoints
    are in place on both sides of the boundary, but temperatures are in
    the upper 60s/low 70s on north side and the low 80s on the south
    side. As a result, buoyancy increases from north to south, with
    MLCAPE near 500 J/kg near the GA/SC border to near 1000 J/kg over
    southeast GA. Bulk vertical shear is strong throughout the region,
    with low-level shear maximized across southeast GA.=20

    Given the current trends and this downstream environment, some
    threat for additional severe may exist east of Tornado Watch 9,
    particularly if the outflow boundary begins to move back northward
    as a warm front. Convective trends will be monitored for potential
    downstream watch issuance.

    ..Mosier/Grams.. 01/02/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tSu9diFKJcaiu7JrvkNyQyE7LSbHm7qMNcaxckqMi_od3sMpiH4QuD2XA_CxHdu5cQEow3ZZ$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

    LAT...LON 32628289 32828218 32848140 32638112 32078128 31338163
    30828227 30868302 31028423 31708404 32628289=20



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