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ACUS11 KWNS 022151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022150=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-022315-
Mesoscale Discussion 0021
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CST Sun Jan 02 2022
Areas affected...South-Central/Southeast GA....Far Southwest SC
Concerning...Tornado Watch 9...
Valid 022150Z - 022315Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 9 continues.
SUMMARY...Ongoing storm cluster as well as the cells ahead of it
will continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts and/or brief
tornadoes. This risk may extent past the edge of Tornado Watch 9 and
trends will be monitored for potential downstream watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Ongoing thunderstorm cluster in southwest GA continue
to move northeastward at 35-40 kt, with the cells out ahead of the
cluster exhibiting similar motion. Damaging wind gusts are the
primary risk, but a brief tornado is also possible. This storm
motion will likely bring the cells ahead of the cluster in Dodge and
Wilcox counties to the northeast edge of Tornado Watch 9 near 23Z.
The main cluster may move a bit slower, but could still reach the
east-central edge of Tornado Watch 9 in the 2300Z to 0000Z time
frame.=20
The downstream air mass across southeast GA and adjacent far
southwest SC is split by an outflow boundary stretching from near
CHS southwestward to about 25 miles north of ABY. Mid 60s dewpoints
are in place on both sides of the boundary, but temperatures are in
the upper 60s/low 70s on north side and the low 80s on the south
side. As a result, buoyancy increases from north to south, with
MLCAPE near 500 J/kg near the GA/SC border to near 1000 J/kg over
southeast GA. Bulk vertical shear is strong throughout the region,
with low-level shear maximized across southeast GA.=20
Given the current trends and this downstream environment, some
threat for additional severe may exist east of Tornado Watch 9,
particularly if the outflow boundary begins to move back northward
as a warm front. Convective trends will be monitored for potential
downstream watch issuance.
..Mosier/Grams.. 01/02/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tSu9diFKJcaiu7JrvkNyQyE7LSbHm7qMNcaxckqMi_od3sMpiH4QuD2XA_CxHdu5cQEow3ZZ$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 32628289 32828218 32848140 32638112 32078128 31338163
30828227 30868302 31028423 31708404 32628289=20
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