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ACUS11 KWNS 022352
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022352=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-030145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0022
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0552 PM CST Sun Jan 02 2022

Areas affected...central and eastern portions of the Florida Panhandle...portions of southern Georgia...and far southern South
Carolina

Concerning...Tornado Watch 10...9...

Valid 022352Z - 030145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 10, 9 continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated stronger storms will continue to pose local risk
for damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two, this evening.

DISCUSSION...Latest RAP-based objective analyses show
persistent/ample mixed-layer CAPE southeast of the
effective/convectively enhanced surface front lying from central
portions of the Florida Panhandle northeastward to southern South
Carolina. Along this boundary, a broken band of locally vigorous
storms continues, moving northeastward at around 30 MPH. Several
small LEWP-type/bowing structures are observed, but at this point
storms remain sub-severe.

With that said, the vigorous mid-level system continues crossing the
middle and lower Mississippi Valley region, with the primary band of
ascent traversing the central Gulf Coast States/Tennessee Valley
region. With the feature gradually assuming neutral or even slight
negative tilt, overnight surface cyclogenesis is expected over the
central Georgia vicinity, eventually shifting into South Carolina.=20
In response, some backing of the low-level flow is expected, along
with maintenance -- and some northward shift -- of the moist
boundary layer suggests that severe risk will continue, or possibly
increase slightly later this evening and into the overnight hours.

..Goss.. 01/02/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!o8JqSoqDefwfTWZkfT9YvoH3zQ9RxOTEjpwzjSluIOoWuTdtz_965z-4zv2oHKkaLMNCIvZn$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 30008601 31558384 32018280 32648212 32878115 32588017
31678088 30518308 30108464 30008601=20



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