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ACUS11 KWNS 030226
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030226=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-030330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0024
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0826 PM CST Sun Jan 02 2022

Areas affected...southeastern Georgia/far southern South
Carolina/far northern Florida

Concerning...Tornado Watch 10...

Valid 030226Z - 030330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 10 continues.

SUMMARY...A least low-end severe potential will likely persist this
evening and overnight, with new WW issuance being considered in
light of the scheduled expiration of Tornado Watch 10 at 03/03Z.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a broken band of convection
extending from southern South Carolina across southeastern Georgia
into eastern portions of the Florida Panhandle. Storms have
remained vigorous on the southern end of this band -- i.e .from
south-central Georgia into the Florida Panhandle.

As the upper system shifting quickly eastward across the central
Gulf Coast region/Tennessee Valley takes on increasing negative tilt
with time, rapid cyclogenesis is expected across the
central/northern Georgia vicinity. While storms will increase from
central Georgia into the Piedmont region of South Carolina, expect
prior convective effects -- including a stable boundary layer -- to
impede severe potential to a large degree. However, ahead of the
main convective band, backing low-level flow and an amply unstable
environment suggests that isolated/local severe risk will linger
through the evening and into the overnight hours. As such, a new WW
is being considered.

..Goss.. 01/03/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ud1woFCulQj5Ua_k-YN___A3XYVRJLYwrY4Bk0MHfiIe7u1NZB_ljDKjAKGBoRvV90ieLIMd$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 30678349 31748289 32268137 33048076 32957997 32677977
32168067 30728136 30588209 30678349=20



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