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ACUS11 KWNS 030411
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030411=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-030645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0025
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1011 PM CST Sun Jan 02 2022

Areas affected...central Georgia into South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 030411Z - 030645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...At least some severe potential may evolve over the next
several hours across parts of central Georgia and into South
Carolina. The need for a WW is uncertain at this time, but we will
continue to closely monitor.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a band of persistent convection
from the Coastal Plain of South Carolina to south-central Georgia
and far eastern portions of the Florida Panhandle. In the wake of
this band, the boundary-layer airmass remains at least somewhat
stable -- particularly into eastern Georgia and South Carolina,
where widespread/heavy stratiform rain is ongoing.

However, in response to the advance of the potent upper system
taking on increasingly negative tilt with time, strong cyclogenesis
is expected over the next several hours. Per the latest RAP output,
12mb deepening of the low will occur over the next 6 hours as it
consolidates over central Georgia and then shifts northeastward into
the South Carolina Piedmont.=20=20

Given the dynamic nature of this system and resulting mass response,
a convective increase is expected -- and indeed is already underway
across western and northern Georgia. The increasing ascent will aid
in some steepening of mid-level lapse rates, thus improving the
thermodynamic environment to some degree. While the lowest 100mb
will likely remain at best neutral in terms of stability,
dynamically forced/organized updrafts -- aided by unusually strong
deep-layer shear -- appear likely.

Along with conditional potential for strong wind gusts at the
surface, dependent upon low-level thermodynamic evolution, a wind
field featuring rapidly veering/increasing flow with height will
yield 0-1km shear quite supportive of low-level updraft rotation.=20
While, again, the questionable boundary layer should be at least
somewhat of a limiting factor, potential for a couple tornadoes
could also develop over time in addition to the aforementioned wind
potential.

At this time, uncertainty remains high, given the
aforementioned/rather substantial thermodynamic concerns. Current
expectations are that a WW may not be needed. However, we will
continue to closely monitor this rapidly evolving scenario.

..Goss/Guyer.. 01/03/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ss6j46O2Ksevpg4_pX7mW0NOKOK_TLKF1Dclr7ePWdjDi_SfKpvlmZ6qIYKrVgmgdxdoe-_y$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON 32118370 32918356 33568279 34428178 34458040 33938016
33348072 32588220 32018304 32118370=20



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