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ACUS11 KWNS 030926
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030925=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-031200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0027
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 AM CST Mon Jan 03 2022

Areas affected...Parts of eastern South Carolina into the North
Carolina coastal plain

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 030925Z - 031200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Discrete supercell development with the potential to
produce tornadoes appears relatively low, but may not be completely
negligible, and could still increase, particularly near North
Carolina coastal areas between Wilmington and Morehead City by 6-8
AM EST.

DISCUSSION...The surface cyclone center migrating across the South
Carolina Piedmont is now below 1000 mb, with continued deepening
ongoing near/north through east of Columbia. Although models
suggest that this may cease as it migrates into the North Carolina
coast plain through 12-15Z, low-level shear beneath 70+ kt southerly
850 mb flow within the warm sector will remain extreme. Low-level
hodographs likely will also remain characterized by at least some
clockwise curvature, and the environment appears at least
conditionally conducive to the development of supercell structures
with the potential to produce tornadoes, as a 100 kt southwesterly
500 mb jet streak noses across the region, to the southeast of a
compact deepening mid-level low.

However, while scattered thunderstorm development is underway and
likely to continue, various model forecast soundings suggest that
the near-surface lapse rates within the warm sector inland of
coastal areas remain stable to moist adiabatic at best. Barring the
inland advection of a more seasonably warm and moist boundary (which
appears to include mid 60s to near 70F surface dew points), it
appears that this will remain the case and continue to inhibit a
substantive severe weather threat.=20=20

Latest forecast soundings from the Rapid Refresh and NAM do suggest
that an influx of more moist and unstable air into North Carolina
coastal areas northeast of Wilmington, and particularly around the
Morehead City area, is possible toward 11-13Z. This could provide a
window of opportunity for increasing potential for tornadoes,
including the risk for a strong tornado or two.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 01/03/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!v6pOLk4gWC-4s8S0JBadadTrXNJaTs0xanH4aTHCNkIG25ji1lo83S1YNw3RLySsOfipO6LF$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 34548114 34887881 35257762 35387685 35577546 34907514
34277739 33837838 33447879 32738009 32668057 33978077
34548114=20



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