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ACUS11 KWNS 031013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031013=20
MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-031415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0028
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0413 AM CST Mon Jan 03 2022

Areas affected...Parts of southwest through northern Virginia and
central Maryland

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 031013Z - 031415Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow rates around 1-2 inches per hour and
occasionally greater appear increasingly possible along and to the
east of the Virginia Blue Ridge Mountains, into the Greater
Washington D.C. and Baltimore Metropolitan areas, through 7-10 AM
EST.

DISCUSSION...Precipitation rates have increased along a frontal zone
north through north-northeast of a deepening surface cyclone center
across the South Carolina Piedmont. Although temperatures near the
surface and in layers aloft are generally still warm to the east of
the Appalachians, across much of the southern Mid Atlantic, a
combination of strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent and
gradual low-level cold advection on northerly surface flow is likely
to contribute to profiles increasingly conducive to snow.

Surface temperatures are already approaching freezing across much of
the Greater Baltimore and Washington D.C. metro areas into the
immediate lee of the Blue Ridge, where strengthening mid-level
frontogenetic forcing for ascent appears likely to become focused,
beneath an intensifying divergent flow field between coupled upper
jets. Forecast soundings suggest that lift will become increasingly
maximized within the dendritic growth layer through 12-15Z, in the
presence of seasonably high moisture content (including precipitable
water on the order of .75-1.0 inches) supportive of 1-2 inch per
hour snow rates, and perhaps occasionally heavier.

..Kerr.. 01/03/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rudpvedhFYTMtBJX2aNzP3A8uO08HsipV5VjEG0kWnbbq8BZrN_TlEEykX0_uY3kqo5DIQ1I$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...MRX...

LAT...LON 36378213 36588191 36948144 37588027 38747866 39357610
38207724 37937816 37467850 36358081 36198167 36378213=20



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