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ACUS11 KWNS 031247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031247=20
NCZ000-031445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0029
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 AM CST Mon Jan 03 2022

Areas affected...Parts of coastal North Carolina

Concerning...Tornado Watch 12...

Valid 031247Z - 031445Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 12 continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated intense thunderstorm development, including the
evolution of a supercell with the potential to produce tornadoes,
remains possible through 9-11 AM EST.

DISCUSSION...12Z surface analysis indicates the surface cyclone
center is now near/northwest of Fayetteville, NC, with strongest 2
hourly pressure falls focused along the coast, where some inland
spread of warm and seasonably moist boundary-layer air is
contributing to destabilization. This includes mid/upper 60s F
surface dew points near the Jacksonville/Morehead City vicinity, up
about 4-5 degrees from the time of the 12Z sounding from this area.=20 Boundary-layer based CAPE appears on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg, in
the presence of strong to extreme low-level shear, including modest
veering of wind fields with height.

As the surface low tracks toward the Outer Banks vicinity through
14-16Z, strong low-level convergence near/just ahead of it could
still provide a focus for isolated, intensifying thunderstorm
development. Given the environment, the evolution of a sustained
supercell structure with the potential to produce one or two
tornadoes appears possible.

..Kerr.. 01/03/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vt-jPp5S6tylFzP3iPtOuar8aBQKgc7iWv9YzqHrm70loHcewFk6lKj6hSAKTyfWVB_OnBh8$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...

LAT...LON 35077780 35517675 35947597 35437521 34607659 34397747
35077780=20



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