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ACUS11 KWNS 031341
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031341=20
NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-031615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0030
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CST Mon Jan 03 2022

Areas affected...Much of the northern Delmarva Peninsula and
southern New Jersey

Concerning...Heavy snow 12...

Valid 031341Z - 031615Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow is in the process of developing, with peak
rates on the order of 1-2+ inches per hour possible through 10 AM-1
PM EST, impacting at least southeastern portions of the Greater
Philadelphia Metropolitan area.

DISCUSSION...A fairly deep lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone over the
Carolinas continues to migrate east-northeastward, with the surface
low center southwest of Goldsboro, NC at 13Z, and forecast to
migrate into and across the Outer Banks vicinity by 16-18Z. As it
does, stronger mid-level frontogentic forcing to its northeast will
gradually develop east-northeastward across the northern Delmarva
Peninsula and southern New Jersey. Thermodynamic profiles across
this region are already supporting snow, which should persist with
increasing rates late this morning into midday, as lift in the
dendritic growth layer maximizes in response to the mid/upper
forcing. Although the strongest lift, in general, associated with
the evolving system, may be weakening somewhat while shifting off
the northern Mid Atlantic coast, seasonably high moisture content
(including precipitable water on the order of .75-1.0 inches)
probably will still support 1-2+ inch per hour snow rates.

..Kerr.. 01/03/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vral1YDtnS5VeNkW3TVv860F_8xqKF1KaC7yBq8mEjcRNLOjI8rJCAn30HLVYJuShpWhbhHo$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON 39397635 39837531 40037434 39527406 38427526 38297631
39397635=20



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