This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1641386759-74861-5768
Content-Type: text/plain
Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

ACUS11 KWNS 051245
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051245=20
NEZ000-WYZ000-051645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0032
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Wed Jan 05 2022

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Wyoming and southwestern
Nebraska

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 051245Z - 051645Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow is possible this morning across the Laramie
Mountains into Cheyenne Ridge vicinity. This may include rates up
to 2+ inches per hour, particularly near the Interstate 25 corridor
north of Cheyenne, through the Wheatland and Douglas areas, by 9-11
AM MST.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of one intense mid-level jet streak (100+
kt around 500 mb) digging through the lower Missouri Valley
vicinity, within the base of evolving larger-scale troughing, Arctic
air, including sub-zero surface temperatures, is nosing southward to
the lee of the northern Rockies. The leading edge of this colder
air is forecast to advance toward the Laramie Mountains and Cheyenne
Ridge vicinity of the high plains this morning, contributing to an
intensifying lower/mid-tropospheric baroclinic zone as another
strong mid-level jet streak digs along the northern Rockies,
near/just west of the Continental Divide.

Increasing large-scale ascent in advance of the trailing
perturbation is already contributing to the saturation of cold
thermodynamic profiles and the development of snow across and
south-southeast of the Laramie Mountains vicinity. As upward
vertical motion intensifies through mid to late morning, in response
to near-surface upslope flow, strengthening frontogenetic forcing,
and increasing upper divergence, snow rates are expected to
increase.=20=20

Through the 15-18Z time frame, various model output suggests that
snow rates may peak, as lift maximizes within a deepening zone with temperatures conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth.=20
Despite rather modest to weak available moisture (including
precipitable water on the order of .25 inches), due to the cold
temperatures and associated potential for high snow to liquid water
equivalent ratios, guidance is suggestive that heaviest rates may
approach 2+ inches per hour by late morning.

..Kerr.. 01/05/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qTPJlZv5hcrkTXCJxpjEPk7Xrst7-QVBzgqwgfRXenGMHXCcm05soj9hrkiZkcyb4Fx9B8jb$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...

LAT...LON 42800521 41850426 41350330 41230511 42040597 42820719
42800521=20



------------=_1641386759-74861-5768
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1641386759-74861-5768--

--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)